Life is learning, right? Every day, almost any place. Even here, reading this blog. Even here, writing this blog.
Hurricane season starts June 1, and that always gives cruisers reason to be nervous, even if it shouldn't. Yesterday, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) made its annual prediction. The prediction is 2014 will be near or below normal, as hurricane seasons go.
Here's why:
"The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer."
El Niño? Really?
This is where the learning comes into play. El Niño causes warmer water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean…and warmer temperatures on land, too. However, it also causes "stronger wind shear" and that affects the trade winds and the climate in the tropical 
– Photo courtesy of NOAA
Atlantic, where most cruise ships and most hurricanes go. Stronger winds suppress the cloud systems coming off the coast of Africa, where hurricanes seeds are planted, so to speak.
Now, to us, this sounds a little contradictory.
Warmer ocean temperatures and higher winds are both associated with hurricanes, yet those very characteristics are going to reduce the risk this hurricane season…or the predicted risk.
A normal hurricane season is 12 storms with names, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. In 2014, NOAA is predicting those numbers will be 8 to 13 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 2 major hurricanes. The experts say there is only a 10 per cent chance they will be wrong.
As for learning more about the contradictions, that's for another expert…and another day.
Today at Phil Reimer's portsandbows.com: The latest in cruise news
Celebrity Summit
7 nights
June 22, 2014
Cape Liberty, NJ (return): King’s Wharf
Inside: $749
Cost per day: $107
www.celebritycruises.com