The Alaska Saga: Year One

Okay, figure this one out: In Alaska, there are substantially fewer cruise-ship passengers in 2010, but ticket prices are stronger than they were last year when there were more ships in the harbors.

Got that?

In the first season after the fallout from Alaska’s controversial “head tax” on cruisers, business is down by 15% to 20%, yet prices are up. Supply and demand, maybe?

Here is roughly what happened…

Alaska slapped a $46 head tax on each cruise passenger. The cruise industry was in an uproar. Passengers were tuning out Alaska, whether it be for paying an extra $46 or other reasons. Norwegian, Royal Caribbean and Princess reduced the number of Alaska-bound ships. An estimated 140,000 tourists didn’t show up.

So now, partway through this season of decline, it seems that people are filling the reduced number of ships…if we interpret this correctly. It will be two more years before that demand is reflected in the supply of ships (i.e., a return to how many sailed there in recent years), because cruise lines decide that far in advance where their fleets are going.

Will it mean Alaska will cost more until more ships come back? What do you think?